Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2176 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2176 GSP 06:19 → ORD 07:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4145 GSP 18:27 → ORD 19:34 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2176 United	GSP 06:19	ORD 07:33	11%	4%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3689 Envoy	GSP 07:26	ORD 08:33	21%	4%	1.5%	no record
AA 4160 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 11:37	ORD 12:44	22%	4%	2.0%	89%worse than usual
UA 5524 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GSP 17:43	ORD 19:00	25%	11%	1.9%	61%
MQ 4002 Envoy	GSP 13:14	ORD 14:21	26%	5%	2.0%	no record
AA 4145 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 18:27	ORD 19:34	33%	9%	1.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON