Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OH 5124 at 07:46, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5124 GSP 07:46 → PHL 09:42 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5124 PSA	GSP 07:46	PHL 09:42	12%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 5908 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 10:37	PHL 12:32	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
AA 5801 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 18:32	PHL 20:31	26%	19%	4.9%	74%
AA 6132 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 14:29	PHL 16:29	33%	15%	6.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON