Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via LAX, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Nonstops today


DL 398 Delta	HNL 15:32	ATL 06:20	30%	16%	1.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 09:35 → SFO 17:59UA 1176	3h 41m San Francisco	SFO 21:40 → ATL 05:34 +1UA 233	13h 59m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	1h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 17:17 → ATL 00:44 +1DL 471	11h 44m	93%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON