Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via LAX, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 4 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	2h 18m Los Angeles	LAX 17:50 → DEN 21:34UA 1652	10h 34m	97%	84%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 11m San Francisco	SFO 16:26 → DEN 20:08UA 1835	8h 58m	90%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON