Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via LAX, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	1h 09m Los Angeles	LAX 16:41 → IAD 00:53 +1UA 1506	11h 53m	90%	78%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 19m San Francisco	SFO 16:34 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453	11h 45m	88%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON