Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1956 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 1956 HNL 06:02 → ITO 07:14 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1062 HNL 13:31 → ITO 14:27 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1956 Southwest	HNL 06:02	ITO 07:14	4%	2%	1.0%	no record
AS 1002 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:10	ITO 07:03	10%	3%	1.8%	93%
WN 1957 Southwest	HNL 08:57	ITO 10:08	11%	5%	0.9%	no record
AS 1022 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:00	ITO 08:54	16%	5%	1.8%	94%worse than usual
AS 1012 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:05	ITO 07:58	19%	5%	1.3%	88%
AS 1032 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:01	ITO 10:55	28%	10%	1.8%	89%worse than usual
WN 1958 Southwest	HNL 13:31	ITO 14:43	31%	9%	0.8%	no record
AS 1042 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:04	ITO 12:09	33%	13%	1.8%	89%worse than usual
AS 1052 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:18	ITO 13:14	46%	16%	1.8%	70%worse than usual
AS 1062 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:31	ITO 14:27	47%	16%	1.8%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON