Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1961 at 06:11, 3%.

Safest bet that day WN 1961 HNL 06:11 → KOA 07:16 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1108 HNL 12:02 → KOA 13:00 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1961 Southwest	HNL 06:11	KOA 07:16	3%	1%	1.2%	no record
AS 1018 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:00	KOA 06:46	8%	2%	2.1%	93%
WN 1962 Southwest	HNL 09:46	KOA 10:51	11%	2%	1.2%	no record
AS 1028 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:13	KOA 07:59	13%	4%	1.9%	95%
AS 1038 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:00	KOA 08:46	13%	4%	2.2%	93%
AS 1048 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:26	KOA 09:12	15%	4%	2.3%	94%
AS 1068 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:29	KOA 10:27	19%	5%	2.3%	85%
AS 1078 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:15	KOA 11:13	33%	10%	2.3%	79%worse than usual
AS 1088 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:07	KOA 12:05	34%	10%	2.3%	71%
WN 940 Southwest	HNL 13:21	KOA 14:26	34%	6%	1.2%	no record
AS 1098 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:34	KOA 12:32	38%	10%	2.3%	74%worse than usual
AS 1128 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:38	KOA 13:36	42%	11%	2.6%	72%worse than usual
AS 1138 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:28	KOA 14:26	42%	11%	2.6%	76%worse than usual
AS 1108 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:02	KOA 13:00	44%	10%	2.7%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON