Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2895 at 08:06, 11%.

Safest bet that day WN 2895 HNL 08:06 → LAS 16:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 876 HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Weather 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2895 Southwest	HNL 08:06	LAS 16:44	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 806 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:55	LAS 16:39	32%	5%	1.2%	78%
AS 876 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:25	LAS 22:10	44%	10%	1.3%	74%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046	1h 53m Kahului	OGG 10:36 → LAS 19:10AS 932	8h 08m	99%	76%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 25m San Francisco	SFO 16:40 → LAS 18:24UA 751	8h 14m	92%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON