Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 422 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 422 HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 802 HNL 13:10 → LAX 21:32 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 422 Delta Flight history →	HNL 07:00	LAX 15:33	10%	5%	0.9%	94%
UA 1221 United Flight history →	HNL 07:00	LAX 15:32	11%	6%	1.0%	90%
DL 427 Delta Flight history →	HNL 12:35	LAX 21:00	25%	8%	0.9%	80%
UA 1157 United Flight history →	HNL 13:00	LAX 21:23	28%	9%	0.9%	83%worse than usual
AS 826 Alaska	HNL 11:44	LAX 20:06	30%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 162 American Flight history →	HNL 13:56	LAX 22:29	30%	9%	0.8%	81%worse than usual
AS 802 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:10	LAX 21:32	39%	10%	1.3%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 12:02 → KOA 13:00AS 1108	1h 29m Kailua/Kona	KOA 14:29 → LAX 22:40AS 561	7h 38m	92%	73%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 10m San Francisco	SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754	7h 55m	91%	69%
Alaska Details →	HNL 10:00 → LIH 10:50AS 1053	1h 44m Lihue	LIH 12:34 → LAX 21:00AS 964	8h 00m	96%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON