Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23% (calm day: 12%). Best bet: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:16, 68% on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 1968 Southwest	HNL 11:57	LGB 20:24	28%	8%	1.0%	no record
AS 870 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:25	LGB 20:46	42%	13%	1.8%	82%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 07:26 → OGG 08:06AS 1036	3h 17m Kahului	OGG 11:23 → LGB 19:42AS 972	9h 16m	100%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON