Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1517 at 06:26, 7%.

Safest bet that day WN 1517 HNL 06:26 → LIH 07:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1093 HNL 13:54 → LIH 14:44 · 65% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1517 Southwest	HNL 06:26	LIH 07:23	7%	2%	1.6%	no record
WN 1970 Southwest	HNL 09:41	LIH 10:38	11%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 1003 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:00	LIH 06:40	11%	3%	5.1%	95%
AS 1033 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:33	LIH 09:14	19%	5%	4.4%	92%worse than usual
AS 1013 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:10	LIH 07:50	22%	6%	4.3%	91%worse than usual
AS 1043 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:15	LIH 10:05	22%	6%	4.4%	91%worse than usual
AS 1023 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:52	LIH 08:32	25%	6%	4.4%	91%worse than usual
AS 1053 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:00	LIH 10:50	33%	10%	3.6%	85%worse than usual
AS 1063 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:42	LIH 11:32	37%	11%	3.4%	82%worse than usual
WN 1499 Southwest	HNL 13:33	LIH 14:30	44%	8%	1.3%	no record
AS 1073 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:30	LIH 12:20	50%	12%	3.6%	62%worse than usual
AS 1083 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:47	LIH 14:31	64%	15%	3.6%	68%worse than usual
AS 1093 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:54	LIH 14:44	65%	14%	3.6%	64%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON