Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29% (calm day: 18%). Best bet: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 10:59, 67% on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 1973 Southwest	HNL 13:31	OAK 21:40	28%	9%	0.8%	no record
AS 848 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:15	OAK 20:25	37%	11%	1.2%	76%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:50 → OGG 09:31AS 1056	3h 31m Kahului	OGG 13:02 → OAK 21:00AS 924	9h 10m	100%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:24 → OGG 12:07AS 1086	55m Kahului	OGG 13:02 → OAK 21:00AS 924	6h 36m	38%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON