Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1975 at 05:52, 3%.

Safest bet that day WN 1975 HNL 05:52 → OGG 06:49 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1106 HNL 12:31 → OGG 13:15 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Weather 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1975 Southwest	HNL 05:52	OGG 06:49	3%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 1978 Southwest	HNL 08:02	OGG 08:59	5%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 1523 Southwest	HNL 09:52	OGG 10:49	6%	3%	1.0%	no record
AS 1016 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:00	OGG 06:40	9%	2%	2.2%	94%
AS 1046 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:02	OGG 08:43	13%	5%	2.3%	95%
AS 1026 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:00	OGG 07:40	16%	5%	2.1%	97%worse than usual
AS 1036 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:26	OGG 08:06	16%	6%	2.1%	86%
AS 1056 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:50	OGG 09:31	16%	5%	2.1%	91%
WN 1981 Southwest	HNL 14:02	OGG 14:59	20%	5%	1.2%	no record
WN 1980 Southwest	HNL 12:26	OGG 13:23	24%	5%	1.2%	no record
AS 1066 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:10	OGG 10:52	27%	10%	2.1%	79%
AS 1076 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:59	OGG 11:41	31%	10%	2.1%	84%worse than usual
AS 1086 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:24	OGG 12:07	39%	11%	2.1%	75%worse than usual
AS 1136 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:35	OGG 15:25	46%	16%	2.3%	65%worse than usual
AS 1126 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:38	OGG 14:28	51%	14%	2.2%	72%worse than usual
AS 1116 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:01	OGG 13:45	56%	16%	2.2%	65%worse than usual
AS 1106 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:31	OGG 13:15	56%	14%	2.3%	70%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON