Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via LAX, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops today


UA 218 United Flight history →	HNL 16:00	ORD 05:05	24%	13%	1.3%	88%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 11m San Francisco	SFO 18:26 → ORD 00:38 +1UA 1958	12h 28m	93%	75%
United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	1h 14m Los Angeles	LAX 16:46 → ORD 22:56UA 2780	10h 56m	88%	70%
Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	2h 14m Los Angeles	LAX 17:47 → ORD 23:53DL 1634	11h 53m	93%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON