Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 08:50, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 839 Alaska	HNL 07:45	PDX 16:12	26%	4%	1.8%	no record
AS 814 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:22	PDX 20:50	41%	9%	2.0%	70%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:00 → KOA 08:46AS 1038	3h 38m Kailua/Kona	KOA 12:24 → PDX 20:53AS 833	9h 53m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	1h 28m Los Angeles	LAX 17:01 → PDX 19:17DL 2459	9h 17m	95%	78%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:26 → OGG 08:06AS 1036	3h 16m Kahului	OGG 11:22 → PDX 19:32AS 480	9h 06m	100%	76%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 25m San Francisco	SFO 16:40 → PDX 18:36UA 1812	8h 26m	92%	74%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:10 → LIH 07:50AS 1013	3h 34m Lihue	LIH 11:24 → PDX 19:58AS 974	9h 48m	100%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON