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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1989 at 08:11, 16%.

Safest bet that day WN 1989 HNL 08:11 → SAN 16:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 816 HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time
Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 1989 Southwest HNL 08:11 SAN 16:32 16% 6% 0.8% no record
AS 827 Alaska HNL 07:30 SAN 16:06 26% 7% 1.9% no record
AS 816 Alaska Flight history → HNL 12:39 SAN 21:07 51% 13% 1.8% 68%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
AlaskaDetails → HNL 08:26 → KOA 09:12AS 1048 1h 25m Kailua/Kona KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266 7h 36m 93% 74%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 08:33 → LIH 09:14AS 1033 1h 30m Lihue LIH 10:44 → SAN 19:23AS 239 7h 50m 95% 68%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221 58m Los Angeles LAX 16:30 → SAN 17:30UA 582 7h 30m 88% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON