Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: DL 359 at 13:07, 19%.

Safest bet that day DL 359 HNL 13:07 → SEA 22:05 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 822 HNL 12:50 → SEA 21:34 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Weather 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 359 Delta Flight history →	HNL 13:07	SEA 22:05	19%	5%	1.2%	87%
AS 902 Alaska	HNL 10:49	SEA 19:20	30%	8%	1.3%	no record
AS 1878 Alaska	HNL 07:31	SEA 15:54	31%	5%	1.3%	no record
AS 822 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:50	SEA 21:34	48%	11%	1.6%	56%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 10:15 → KOA 11:13AS 1078	1h 25m Kailua/Kona	KOA 12:38 → SEA 21:03AS 475	7h 48m	91%	74%
Alaska Details →	HNL 12:31 → OGG 13:15AS 1106	1h 19m Kahului	OGG 14:34 → SEA 22:50AS 244	7h 19m	89%	60%
Alaska Details →	HNL 10:59 → OGG 11:41AS 1076	1h 14m Kahului	OGG 12:55 → SEA 21:25AS 930	7h 26m	84%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON