Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: UA 373 at 07:10, 16%.

Safest bet that day UA 373 HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 812 HNL 12:20 → SFO 20:28 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Weather 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 373 United Flight history →	HNL 07:10	SFO 15:15	16%	7%	1.2%	90%
UA 1176 United Flight history →	HNL 09:30	SFO 17:46	18%	8%	1.2%	92%
UA 1947 United Flight history →	HNL 14:10	SFO 22:28	26%	11%	1.2%	79%
UA 650 United Flight history →	HNL 13:25	SFO 21:36	34%	10%	0.9%	83%worse than usual
AS 812 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:20	SFO 20:28	41%	16%	1.8%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046	1h 49m Kahului	OGG 10:32 → SFO 18:27AS 978	7h 25m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON