Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32% (calm day: 20%). Best bet: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 10:10, 66% on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 1992 Southwest	HNL 08:16	SJC 16:22	13%	4%	1.2%	no record
AS 854 Alaska	HNL 12:40	SJC 20:57	40%	12%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:50 → OGG 09:31AS 1056	2h 36m Kahului	OGG 12:07 → SJC 20:03AS 954	8h 13m	100%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON