Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 10:10, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 1994 Southwest	HNL 12:12	SMF 20:30	30%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 820 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:49	SMF 23:02	37%	16%	1.2%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	1h 05m Los Angeles	LAX 16:38 → SMF 18:11DL 3712 · flown by SkyWest	8h 11m	92%	81%
United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	58m Los Angeles	LAX 16:30 → SMF 18:06UA 5858 · flown by SkyWest	8h 06m	88%	78%
Alaska Details →	HNL 08:50 → OGG 09:31AS 1056	2h 52m Kahului	OGG 12:23 → SMF 20:36AS 960	8h 46m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:10 → LIH 07:50AS 1013	2h 58m Lihue	LIH 10:48 → SMF 19:01AS 966	8h 51m	100%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON