Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2002 at 05:28 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 2002 HOU 05:28 → ATL 08:43 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1340 HOU 15:06 → ATL 18:20 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2002 Southwest	HOU 05:28	ATL 08:43	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2557 Delta Flight history →	HOU 06:00	ATL 09:05	4%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1509 Delta Flight history →	HOU 10:40	ATL 13:46	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 244 Southwest	HOU 10:06	ATL 13:21	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2381 Delta Flight history →	HOU 17:17	ATL 20:32	10%	4%	0.6%	77%
DL 1195 Delta Flight history →	HOU 14:24	ATL 17:34	12%	4%	0.6%	80%
WN 1340 Southwest	HOU 15:06	ATL 18:20	17%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON