Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 279 Southwest	HOU 10:01	AUS 11:04	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 369 Southwest	HOU 15:46	AUS 16:50	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	2h 42m Dallas	DAL 10:52 → AUS 12:02WN 987	5h 02m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	6h 25m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	HOU 10:01 → DAL 11:15WN 16	2h 07m Dallas	DAL 13:22 → AUS 14:33WN 354	4h 32m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:01 → DAL 13:15WN 24	2h 36m Dallas	DAL 15:51 → AUS 17:01WN 1320	5h 00m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491	6h 39m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	HOU 15:00 → DAL 16:10WN 36	3h 26m Dallas	DAL 19:36 → AUS 20:47WN 187	5h 47m	99%	79%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:11 → TPA 08:36WN 2133	1h 40m Tampa	TPA 10:16 → AUS 11:53WN 4140	6h 42m	100%	78%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:33 → AUS 13:46AA 1852	4h 14m	95%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON