Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1948 at 14:59, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1948 Southwest	HOU 14:59	BHM 16:53	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:53 → DAL 07:07WN 1636	1h 34m Dallas	DAL 08:41 → BHM 10:32WN 4	4h 39m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	5h 10m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	5h 42m	99%	88%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:03 → BHM 14:58AA 3884 · flown by Envoy	5h 26m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	5h 34m	97%	87%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:01 → DAL 13:15WN 24	2h 41m Dallas	DAL 15:56 → BHM 17:47WN 997	5h 46m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON