Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Charleston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107	5h 00m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 15:59 → CHS 17:16DL 2174	5h 36m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 19:27 → CHS 20:42DL 2493	5h 18m	95%	81%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:01 → DAL 13:15WN 24	2h 01m Dallas	DAL 15:16 → CHS 18:55WN 2965	5h 54m	98%	77%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:04 → CHS 22:51AA 1422	7h 28m	93%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON