Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1636 at 05:53 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 1636 HOU 05:53 → DAL 07:07 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 50 HOU 18:31 → DAL 19:45 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1636 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:53	DAL 07:07	2%	1%	1.2%	95%
WN 4 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:00	DAL 08:10	3%	1%	1.2%	94%
WN 8 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:00	DAL 09:10	5%	1%	1.3%	88%
WN 16 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 10:01	DAL 11:15	6%	1%	1.2%	91%
WN 24 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 12:01	DAL 13:15	10%	2%	1.3%	81%
WN 30 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 13:30	DAL 14:40	10%	2%	1.2%	76%
WN 40 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 16:00	DAL 17:10	13%	3%	1.2%	75%
WN 44 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 16:57	DAL 18:12	13%	4%	1.1%	46%
WN 36 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 15:00	DAL 16:10	15%	3%	1.2%	77%
WN 50 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 18:31	DAL 19:45	15%	4%	1.0%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON