Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2606 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2606 HOU 06:16 → DEN 07:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2037 HOU 17:06 → DEN 18:32 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2606 Southwest	HOU 06:16	DEN 07:45	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 947 Southwest	HOU 07:56	DEN 09:25	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2035 Southwest	HOU 11:06	DEN 12:33	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4007 Southwest	HOU 18:36	DEN 20:02	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1777 Southwest	HOU 14:46	DEN 16:13	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2037 Southwest	HOU 17:06	DEN 18:32	26%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON