Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 3729 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3729 HOU 06:07 → DFW 07:24 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6252 HOU 18:24 → DFW 19:44 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3729 Envoy	HOU 06:07	DFW 07:24	9%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HOU 09:32	DFW 10:49	11%	4%	1.0%	94%
OO 4924 SkyWest	HOU 11:37	DFW 12:57	16%	9%	1.5%	no record
MQ 4015 Envoy	HOU 16:17	DFW 17:34	22%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 6413 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HOU 14:23	DFW 15:43	24%	10%	1.6%	74%
OO 6252 SkyWest	HOU 18:24	DFW 19:44	26%	9%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON