Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1861 at 13:46, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1861 Southwest	HOU 13:46	ECP 15:43	12%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	4h 48m	98%	91%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:53 → DAL 07:07WN 1636	1h 12m Dallas	DAL 08:19 → ECP 10:21WN 311	4h 28m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053	7h 15m	100%	89%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:05 → ECP 21:11AA 3628 · flown by Envoy	6h 48m	93%	78%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:17 → ECP 14:25AA 2052	4h 53m	89%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON