Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4895 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4895 Southwest	HOU 08:16	ELP 09:19	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2042 Southwest	HOU 15:11	ELP 16:15	21%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:53 → DAL 07:07WN 1636	54m Dallas	DAL 08:01 → ELP 08:55WN 3682	4h 02m	97%	92%
Southwest Details →	HOU 08:00 → DAL 09:10WN 8	3h 13m Dallas	DAL 12:23 → ELP 13:16WN 4783	6h 16m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:01 → DAL 13:15WN 24	3h 12m Dallas	DAL 16:27 → ELP 17:21WN 225	6h 20m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 19:39 → ELP 20:50DL 1713	7h 26m	96%	76%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:37 → ELP 15:33AA 1681	7h 01m	100%	72%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:01 → ELP 18:57AA 555	5h 34m	90%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON