Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 21m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527	7h 05m	97%	65%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	6h 14m	97%	65%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:49 → EWR 16:25AA 813	5h 53m	89%	63%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:15 → EWR 22:51AA 618	7h 28m	90%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON