Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:09 → IAD 13:06DL 8965	6h 06m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902	6h 50m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309	5h 39m	94%	78%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:58 → IAD 18:13AA 1863	7h 41m	100%	77%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:46 → IAD 22:54AA 2254	7h 31m	93%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON