Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 572 at 10:56, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 572 Southwest	HOU 10:56	IND 14:21	9%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	2h 11m Dallas	DAL 10:21 → IND 13:35WN 4673	5h 35m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	5h 36m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 17:27 → IND 19:07DL 3120	7h 27m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482	7h 03m	98%	83%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:12 → IND 16:34AA 1450	6h 02m	100%	74%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:01 → IND 21:25AA 2784	6h 02m	90%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON