Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Jacksonville on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024	6h 45m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 16:42 → JAX 17:57DL 2440	6h 17m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 19:58 → JAX 21:13DL 2265	5h 49m	97%	79%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:56 → JAX 16:38AA 1472	6h 06m	94%	74%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:44 → JAX 22:23AA 679	7h 00m	93%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON