Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4603 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4603 Southwest	HOU 08:01	MCI 10:06	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2076 Southwest	HOU 15:06	MCI 17:11	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:53 → DAL 07:07WN 1636	3h 04m Dallas	DAL 10:11 → MCI 11:58WN 2636	6h 05m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → MCI 12:18DL 2747	6h 18m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	HOU 10:01 → DAL 11:15WN 16	2h 16m Dallas	DAL 13:31 → MCI 15:16WN 4317	5h 15m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 20:38 → MCI 21:52DL 3023	7h 28m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660	5h 50m	97%	82%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:01 → DAL 13:15WN 24	2h 52m Dallas	DAL 16:07 → MCI 17:54WN 1401	5h 53m	99%	77%
Southwest Details →	HOU 15:00 → DAL 16:10WN 36	3h 26m Dallas	DAL 19:36 → MCI 21:21WN 1402	6h 21m	99%	71%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:05 → MCI 18:46AA 4165 · flown by Envoy	4h 23m	81%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON