Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1444 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1444 HOU 05:01 → MDW 07:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2087 HOU 15:22 → MDW 17:58 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1444 Southwest	HOU 05:01	MDW 07:40	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2085 Southwest	HOU 08:56	MDW 11:33	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 234 Southwest	HOU 12:56	MDW 15:33	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 43 Southwest	HOU 18:44	MDW 21:20	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2087 Southwest	HOU 15:22	MDW 17:58	24%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON