tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3054 at 10:26 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3054 Southwest HOU 10:26 MEM 12:09 6% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 820 Southwest HOU 15:01 MEM 16:44 17% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → HOU 05:11 → TPA 08:36WN 2133 1h 35m Tampa TPA 10:11 → MEM 11:15WN 2749 6h 04m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 32m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:07DL 1681 6h 27m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 08:00 → DAL 09:10WN 8 3h 16m Dallas DAL 12:26 → MEM 14:03WN 1417 6h 03m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 20:11 → MEM 20:34DL 3020 6h 10m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:53 → MEM 14:35AA 3888 · flown by Envoy 5h 03m 94% 81%
AmericanDetails → HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:44 → MEM 19:21AA 3932 · flown by Envoy 4h 58m 88% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON