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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 02m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 5h 22m 91% 73%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 10:01 → DAL 11:15WN 16 2h 41m Dallas DAL 13:56 → MIA 17:46WN 2929 6h 45m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 5h 15m 94% 71%
DeltaDetails → HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588 6h 35m 96% 71%
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:55 → MIA 17:02AA 2461 6h 30m 94% 65%
AmericanDetails → HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:43 → MIA 21:44AA 2050 6h 21m 88% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:30 → MIA 20:35AA 3308 5h 12m 71% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON