Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1528 at 08:11 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1528 Southwest	HOU 08:11	OKC 09:46	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2104 Southwest	HOU 14:32	OKC 16:05	17%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:53 → DAL 07:07WN 1636	2h 09m Dallas	DAL 09:16 → OKC 10:30WN 2806	4h 37m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020	6h 12m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862	5h 42m	96%	81%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:19 → OKC 14:34AA 2929	5h 02m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 19:05 → OKC 20:15DL 2784	5h 51m	93%	77%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:26 → OKC 18:41AA 2734	4h 18m	85%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON