Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894	6h 34m	99%	82%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988	6h 19m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738	6h 32m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 19:39 → ORD 20:51DL 1139	6h 27m	96%	69%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:22 → ORD 20:56AA 2656	6h 33m	90%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON