Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Pensacola on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	4h 51m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	6h 23m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021	5h 40m	96%	82%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:01 → DAL 13:15WN 24	2h 31m Dallas	DAL 15:46 → PNS 17:39WN 1442	5h 38m	98%	78%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:55 → PNS 14:53AA 2328	5h 21m	94%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON