Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4602 at 15:06, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4602 Southwest	HOU 15:06	RDU 19:08	21%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	5h 42m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 15:48 → RDU 17:22DL 2600	5h 42m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518	5h 33m	95%	81%
Southwest Details →	HOU 08:00 → DAL 09:10WN 8	3h 16m Dallas	DAL 12:26 → RDU 16:21WN 1752	7h 21m	100%	79%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:46 → RDU 18:48AA 1888	8h 16m	100%	72%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:43 → RDU 21:34AA 979	6h 11m	88%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON