tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2115 Southwest HOU 08:01 SAN 09:28 14% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 4274 Southwest HOU 14:41 SAN 16:08 24% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → HOU 05:53 → DAL 07:07WN 1636 1h 04m Dallas DAL 08:11 → SAN 09:28WN 738 5h 35m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 08m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SAN 17:15DL 924 8h 35m 98% 80%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 08:00 → DAL 09:10WN 8 3h 40m Dallas DAL 12:50 → SAN 14:04WN 1319 8h 04m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → SAN 21:16DL 819 8h 52m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:12 → SAN 14:32AA 1769 7h 00m 100% 70%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 13:30 → DAL 14:40WN 30 3h 56m Dallas DAL 18:36 → SAN 19:47WN 323 8h 17m 100% 67%
AmericanDetails → HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:02 → SAN 20:03AA 1243 7h 40m 93% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON