Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4394 at 10:26, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4394 Southwest	HOU 10:26	SAV 13:55	9%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Savannah on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Savannah is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 16:50 → SAV 18:02DL 3112	6h 22m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 20:06 → SAV 21:17DL 2425	5h 53m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:01 → DAL 13:15WN 24	3h 41m Dallas	DAL 16:56 → SAV 20:25WN 1459	7h 24m	100%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 15:00 → DAL 16:10WN 36	46m Dallas	DAL 16:56 → SAV 20:25WN 1459	4h 25m	74%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON