Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 19 at 13:16, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 19 Southwest	HOU 13:16	SDF 16:43	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	4h 51m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	3h 46m Dallas	DAL 11:56 → SDF 15:10WN 1460	7h 10m	100%	87%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:02 → SDF 17:16AA 3629 · flown by Envoy	6h 44m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 20:38 → SDF 22:04DL 2842	6h 40m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126	6h 09m	99%	84%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:13 → SDF 21:31AA 2212	6h 08m	90%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON