Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:18 → SEA 13:29DL 629	9h 29m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 25m	99%	84%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:33 → SEA 16:47AA 727	9h 15m	100%	71%
American Details →	HOU 14:22 → DFW 15:42AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:32 → SEA 19:41AA 1483	7h 19m	88%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON