Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	10h 50m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823	8h 51m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 19:34 → SFO 21:27DL 681	9h 03m	95%	69%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:13 → SFO 14:59AA 2325	7h 27m	100%	67%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:28 → SFO 21:10AA 1430	8h 47m	93%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON