Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2125 at 08:06, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2125 Southwest	HOU 08:06	SJC 10:10	6%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	10h 12m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933	10h 25m	98%	86%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:58 → SJC 13:56AA 2834	6h 24m	89%	74%
Southwest Details →	HOU 15:00 → DAL 16:10WN 36	2h 36m Dallas	DAL 18:46 → SJC 20:34WN 44	7h 34m	98%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON