Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2126 at 12:51, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2126 Southwest	HOU 12:51	SLC 14:55	15%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 50m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:53 → DAL 07:07WN 1636	3h 04m Dallas	DAL 10:11 → SLC 11:52WN 1426	6h 59m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	7h 38m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 19:34 → SLC 21:37DL 660	8h 13m	95%	80%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:03 → SLC 15:54AA 1456	7h 22m	100%	71%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:48 → SLC 20:34AA 558	7h 11m	93%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON