Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4494 at 08:01, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4494 Southwest	HOU 08:01	SMF 09:53	6%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:53 → DAL 07:07WN 1636	2h 09m Dallas	DAL 09:16 → SMF 10:53WN 2046	7h 00m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	10h 29m	98%	85%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:46 → SMF 13:31AA 2078	5h 59m	89%	72%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:43 → SMF 18:20AA 651	5h 57m	76%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON