Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 14:24, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826	10h 01m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329	8h 31m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012	10h 20m	100%	82%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:29 → SNA 15:57AA 2659	8h 25m	100%	81%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:15 → SNA 20:22AA 806	7h 59m	93%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON